By Alex Longley and Helen Robertson

(Bloomberg) —

“While we aren’t explicitly forecasting Brent to rise to $100/bbl we see real risks of this happening,” HSBC head of oil and gas equity research Gordon Gray writes in a report.

* Global system is highly vulnerable to any further significant outage given low spare capacity
* Lifts 2019 Brent forecast to $80/bbl from $70 and 2020 to $85 from $71.40
* Expects “big losses in OPEC supply”, mainly from Venezuela, to be compounded by a sharp fall in Iranian exports
* Says oil inventory “cushion“ which could provide a buffer has now gone
* IMO 2020 will disrupt oil markets and potentially boost demand in 2019-2020

To contact the reporters on this story:
Helen Robertson in London at hrobertson18@bloomberg.net;
Alex Longley in London at alongley@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Alaric Nightingale at anightingal1@bloomberg.net
Helen Robertson, Rachel Graham